Beating Murphy’s Law with Game Theory
Q. How can a person use game theory to reduce the chance of Murphy’s Law creating struggle in one’s life?
A. In my work as a teacher of advanced training for professional life coaches as well as being a mentor to my private clients, my work – “Harrison’s Applied Game theory (HAGT)” can be used to transform a person’s life.
HAGT is the use of rational and intuitive game-based thinking models to make decisions. Through these models, the same ones we used as children when playing Tic-tac-toe, Rock-paper-scissors, and checkers, an individual defines their own weaknesses and strengths and then makes a decision based on what another person is likely to do. As adults, many of us use game-based thinking in chess, poker, basketball, and other games but unfortunately, we do not understand that we can apply these thought patterns to our daily lives. If we did, we would undoubtedly become more efficient, effective, precise, productive, and self-aware.
One of the most important concepts in HAGT is the Black Swan Affect. I like to say that “if you understand the Black Swan effect you can beat Murphy’s Law.
One of the great challenges for any master strategist is how to respond to the potential of a small shift taking place in a competitive environment (game space).
Most of us are familiar with the concept of Murphy’s Law. The idea that given enough time anything that can go wrong will go wrong, and often what does go wrong will happen at the worst possible time.
What the concept of Murphy’s Law seems to ignore is that often this “thing that goes wrong” is so small and seemingly inconsequential that when it arrives it isn’t even noticed, not even by the wisest, most skilled, and highly observant strategist.
What is one to do, knowing that the reality of this constraint is always a possibility?
The best game-based thinkers study the theory of black swans. Also known as the black swan theory this is a metaphor that describes an event that comes as a surprise, has a major effect, and is often inappropriately rationalized after the fact with the benefit of hindsight.
When applying the BMLS you are not concerned with outwitting a competitor. Rather, you are concerned with how best to adjust to the unexpected constraint.
The term is based on an ancient saying that presumed black swans did not exist – a saying that became reinterpreted to teach a different lesson after black swans were discovered in the wild.
The theory was developed by Nassim Nicholas Taleb to explain the disproportionate role of high-profile, hard-to-predict, and rare events that are beyond the realm of normal expectations in history, science, finance, technology, and in game-based thinking in general.
The non-computability of the probability of the consequential rare events using scientific methods (owing to the very nature of small probabilities). The theory also addresses the psychological biases (cognitive biases) that can blind strategists and game-based thinkers, both individually and collectively, to uncertainty and to a small event’s massive consequences. To a statistician or a research scientist, Taleb mathematically defines the black swan problem as “stemming from the use of degenerate meta-probability”.
The bottom line is that you never know what event can change your life.
Here is an article about an innocent man convicted of murder, and kept in a New York prison for over two decades. The Black Swan even? He decided to create drawings of golf courses. The drawings ultimately freed him.
Are you prepared for a Black Swan event. Can you strategize around Murphy’s Law?
If not, let me teach you how.
Learn how to win at the game of life through my new book “How to Hack Your Life through Game Thinking”
If you have an interest in having a basic understanding of Applied Game Theory (and you need to) here is an interview I did with James Selman, a pioneer and innovator in Leadership research.
Just click below to watch the entire interview.
Listen here as Lewis explain the RealUGuru Project and how we can give up unnecessary struggle through visionary thinking in this insightful interview with award winning journalist Phyllis Haynes about the RealUGuru Project
Lewis Harrison is the director of the professional Coaching Training Program at the International Association of Healing Professionals
He is founder of the RealUGuru Project Think Tank is a life coach, peak performance expert, writer, mentor, content-rich, motivational speaker, and an entrepreneur specializing in problem solving and strategizing based on game thinking, applied game theory and Game Thinking.
He is the author of over twenty-two books published in five languages.
Don’t forget to tune to the RealUGuru Radio show every Thursday 4-6 PM EST at WIOX 91.3 FM or on your smart device at WIOXRadio.org.
WIOX is a diverse station that broadcasts original programming including presentation from NPR, the BBC, Democracy Now etc.
If you are interested in business success in the 21st Century in the arts or in any other endeavor you need to study with Lewis Harrison. Begin by reading Lewis’ books.
If you are an entrepreneur you will want to begin with his books on game theory and business success.
Begin your explorations here
The offerings on RealUGuru.com focus on the application of applied game thinking, gamification, decision science, positive psychology, happiness, and visionary thinking to solve basic, complex and extreme problems. He is the creator of a free course on business success and human potential.
Here is a short interview with Lewis;
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